Forecasts show national and state level cumulative reported and predicted deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. CDC is working with partners to bring together weekly COVID-19 forecasts in one place.
— Read on www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html

COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of February 15, 2021.

This week, ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks included forecasts from 37 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for new or total deaths for at least one jurisdiction.

This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 8,400 to 18,500 new deaths likely reported in the week ending March 13, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 530,000 to 559,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely decrease in 27 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.